First Annual National Health And Climate Change Science And Policy Research Consensus Conference - How Will Climate Change Affect Priorities For Your Health Science And Policy Research?

Health Issue Topic: Health and socio-economic impacts

Summary of discussions

The presenter explained that the group had focussed on how climate change affects socioeconomic status and conditions, which in turn affect health. A conceptual model was presented showing both the direct effects of climate change on health, and those indirect effects on health which arise through the changes in social and economic conditions. This direct and indirect three-way linkage between climate change, socio-economic conditions, and human health and well-being applies at all scales from global to local.

Examples of socio-economic impacts include: changes in income and social status (e.g. farmers suffering crop failures and income losses), productivity and employment shifts from one industry sector to another, increased inequity of access to natural resources (e.g. due to scarcity of water in certain areas), increased migration (regional, provincial, international), decreased quality of life of Aboriginal people and other subsistence populations affected by depletion or disappearance of essential resources due to changes in ecosystems, and consequently exposed to increased stress.

Participants discussed the possibility that climate crises could become a cause of large scale social conflicts and wars, and acknowledged that major societal shifts anywhere in the world will have impacts in Canada.

Redirecting public thinking towards adaptation was considered important, and for this it is critical to understand the "societal reflex" toward climate change. Participants stressed that human health cannot be addressed in isolation, and that the research agenda should be driven in part by an understanding of the broader determinants of health. A key research challenge is that the anecdotal evidence is not adequately supported by scientific data.

Socioeconomic impacts

Knowledge
Strengths

• The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction is aware of the issue of climate change as it affects the insurance industry.

Limitations

• More information is needed on the insurance infrastructure.
• There is a lack of knowledge in general. Governments and researchers must prioritize what they need to measure, and then identify existing sources of data.
• Studies currently rely on static climatological information - design standards need to be updated.
• There is not enough knowledge about the impacts of climate change on different socioeconomic groups.
• Many researchers focus only on the most vulnerable populations and forget that everyone is vulnerable.
• The effects of climate change on geo-political issues should be explored.
• There needs to be a predictive analysis to anticipate environmental changes, and to prepare effective interventions to deal with the socioeconomic outcomes of climate change. A link needs to be made between the social and economic effects
• Psychosocial studies are needed to better understand the effects of weather on behaviour.
• Funds are needed to support research in order to provide a greater degree of certainty about economic risk.
• A global conceptual framework is needed to identify the impacts, determine gaps and prioritize issues.
• The potential benefits of climate change should be researched.
• Dimensions such as region and time scale must be considered.

Data sources
Strengths

• We have access to a large central statistical agency (Statistics Canada).
• Experts are available, but often are not aware of the opportunities.

Limitations

• There are no generally recognized prerequisite competences and "best practices" for research on the health implications of climate change. ( Can researchers investigate the impacts of climate change on health without knowing what linkages influence the impacts of climate on health ?).
• Although data sources are available, it is difficult to match the various data sets.
• It is difficult for many researchers to get access to both health and environmental data, e.g. because of jurisdictional barriers. Also, no comprehensive database inventories are available.
• Although climate data are available, coverage across Canada is "weak and getting weaker". Microclimate data are largely unavailable.
• The monitoring and surveillance systems need to be improved, and surveillance programs must focus on key targets.
• There is poor connectivity between international, national and regional sets of data.
• Different kinds of data are collected in different ways.
• There may be a lack of expertise available to deal with the number of interdisciplinary projects that need to be done.
• Canada has done a poor job of keeping long-term records.

Methods
Strengths

• Tools exist that allow researchers to merge geographically classified data with socioeconomic data using administrative classifications (e.g. the geographic information system, GIS).

Limitations

• Statistical methods are needed for validly interpreting the different available records.
• The causes and effects of multi-year patterns of disease outbreaks are poorly understood.

Capacity
Strengths

• Research funding policies encourage interdisciplinary approaches.

Limitations

• A lack of long-term commitment to research (on a scale of 30-40 years).
• Data sharing may be seen as "risky" unless there are clearly defined terms of reference.
• There are few meta-databases, and more must be developed.

Strategic Questions

The research agenda should address the following strategic questions:

• What are the impacts of climate change on social and economic conditions?
• What are the impacts of the changes in social and economic conditions arising from climate change on the determinants of health?
• What are the socio-economic costs and benefits of climate change and the impacts of these costs and benefits on health?
• What are the local socio-economic impacts of climate change as opposed to national and provincial impacts?
• Are there international forces or drivers? For instance, scarcity of water and food, causing droughts and famines in certain regions of the globe will increase incidence of social conflicts and wars. These consequences of climate change will increase migration of "environmental refugees" to less affected areas, including Canada.
• What are the vulnerable groups of population?
• How prepared is the public health services infrastructure to react and to adapt to i mpacts of climate change? What are the vulnerable areas of the system? How can these vulnerabilities be prioritized ?
• How can we improve our public health warning systems (surveillance tools and indicators)?

After reviewing the strategic questions identified by the group, the presenter summarised some of the main underlying research sub-topics (in sequential order):

• Understanding past climate variability and its socio-economic impacts (establishing a historical perspective) in order to better explore and assess the links between future climate change and variability and human health and well-being.
• Understanding the various scales and dimensions of climate change and of its socioeconomic impacts in different regions and different population groups.
• Defining linkages between socio-economic status and health status under climate change.
• Developing and using appropriate indicators and surveillance tools for assessing climate change and its socio-economic and health implications.
• Identifying statistical requirements, data sources, and conceptual frameworks.
• Estimating the costs and benefits of climate change:
  - direct and indirect social and economic costs of not adapting,
  - direct and indirect costs and benefits of adaptation.
• Understanding how people (as individuals and commonalities) react to change.
• Assessing the capacity of the health services infrastructure to adapt to impacts of climate change:
  
  
  • vulnerable areas
  • early warning mechanisms
  • scientific knowledge, equipment and infrastructure
  • human resources
  • needed investments in health services infrastructure to correct weaknesses

Research Tasks

• Define climate change on a relevant scale.
• Identify indicators of socio-economic status and health status that would be necessary to establish linkages between climate change and health and socio-economic outcomes.
• Identify data gaps and list them by order of priority, identify methods for data collection and integration.
• Define mechanisms to disseminate information (risk communication).
• Develop time series of climate variability and their linkages to time series of socio-economic and health factors.
• Develop systematic and comprehensive analyses of public health infrastructure capabilities and weaknesses.

Outputs/Deliverables

• Integrated assessment models of socio-economic impacts of climate change, and how in turn they affect human health and well-being. Their outputs should be compared to those of other models of how climate change might impact on economic, social and health outcomes.
• Case studies
• Indicators and surveillance tools
• Meta databases
• Evaluation of adaptation measures

Uses

The results of the research would be used to help private and institutional decision-making as follows:

• Help policy makers to develop sustainable development policies as well as economic and human development policies.
• Better allocation of resources.
• Planning to cope with potential disasters and to improve disaster warning systems (emergency preparedness).
• Minimise impacts of climate change on socio-economic structure and outcomes.
• Land use planning.
• Education of public.
• Help to identify vulnerable populations.
• Environmental impact assessment.

Disciplines

• Social scientists, sociologists, ethicists.
• Risk assessment and management experts.
• Epidemiologists, statisticians and demographers.
• Climatologists and meteorologists.
• Economists, accountants and actuaries.
• Historians.
• Environmental health professionals and engineers.
• Remote sensing experts.

Research Sub-Topics

• Linkages between climate change and its socioeconomic costs
• The cost of proactive avoidance
• Negative and positive impacts and effects
• Understanding of how individuals react to change
• Evaluation methods to determine the effectiveness of strategies around the health effects of climate change

Strategic Questions

• Specific climatic changes that are likely to occur;
• Feedback mechanisms in which socioeconomic changes resulting from climate change lead to further climate impacts;
• Human health impacts of socioeconomic changes;
• Socioeconomic costs and benefits of the determinants of health;
• Vulnerabilities within Canada's social infrastructure;
• Inventory of international issues, including consequences of climatic changes that lead to water shortages in specific areas of the globe.

Research Tasks

• Look at historical records to measure climate variability;
• Define the linkages between climate change and human morbidity, and between socioeconomic status and human health outcomes, such as morbidity, mortality, and hospital admissions;
• Link climate drivers with health outcomes;
• Anticipate climatic changes on a finer scale than is now available, based on a better definition of the appropriate research scales for all Canadian industries, and on an understanding of the important climate factors for each component of Canadian economy;
• Better define the impacts;
• Develop methods of collecting and estimating/integrating data;
• Develop indicators;
• Explore international implications, such as the health impacts that can be expected in the event that Africa gets drier.

Outputs/Deliverables

• Case studies;
• Integrated assessment models;
• Information for policy development;
• Economic indicators;
• Meta databases;
• Surveillance tools;
• Evaluation of adaptation methods.

Uses

• Capacity to predict, prepare, or make modifications required to adapt to change, such as sustainable resource development;
• Ability to minimize socioeconomic impact of climate change;
• Informed decision-making;
• Allocation of resources;
• Policy development;
• Disaster planning;

• Land use planning;
• Educational materials;
• Economic development;
• Identification of vulnerable populations;
• Environmental impact assessment.

Disciplines

• Social science, sociology, ethics;
• Risk management and communication;
• Epidemiology;
• Statistics;
• Climatology, meteorology;
• Economics;
• Systems analysis;
• Accounting and actuarial science;
• Demography;
• Health behaviour;
• History;
• Public health;
• Civil engineering.

Research Sub-Topic	Impacts
Strategic Question	Will climate change impacts in other parts of the world (e.g. droughts, flooding, famines, conflicts, wars, migrations) affect the social and economic health of Canada?
Tasks	Use integrated assessment modeling (climate, population growth, resource availability and use, migration trends) and other data to assess implications for Canada.
Products	Assessments of future international socio-economic climate change impacts likely to affect Canada.
Uses / Linkages	Adaptation strategies. Planning international aid programs. Planning immigration and public health policies.
Order On Critical Path	Medium

Research Sub-Topic	Impacts
Strategic Question	What impacts (costs and benefits) will climate change have on social and economic conditions, and how will these changes affect human health?
Tasks	Assess past climate conditions and their socioeconomic impacts (costs and benefits). Identify effects of social and economic conditions on determinants of health. Develop and use integrated assessment models to examine effects of climate related changes in socio-economic conditions on population health.
Products	Databases and case studies on historical climate changes. Indicators and integrated assessment models for assessing past and future climate impacts on social, economic and health costs and benefits.
Uses / Linkages	Development of effective socioeconomic adaptation strategies.
Order On Critical Path	High

Research Sub-Topic	Impacts	Vunlerability
Strategic Question	What are the national/ provincial/territorial/regional and local socio-economic impacts of climate change?	Which are the population groups most vulnerable to socio-economic impacts of climate change ?
Tasks	Based on climate model outputs, on the 1997 Canada Country Study, on socio-economic and other information, identify and assess various scales and dimensions of climate change, and their socioeconomic impacts in different regions and population groups.	Identify groups which are socially and economically disadvantaged (e.g. low income), which depend directly on natural resources (e.g. farming, fishing, forestry, hunting, recreation), or live in areas prone to disasters (e.g. floods, landslides, storms).
Products	Assessments of national, regional, and local socioeconomic impacts of climate change.	Databases, indicators and assessments of the population groups most vulnerable to socio-economic effects of climate change.
Uses / Linkages	Development, evaluation and selection of socioeconomic adaptation strategies.	Economic and human development policies. Strategies for adaptation to climate change and for sustainable development. Resource allocation policies. Land use planning.
Order On Critical Path	High	High

Research Sub-Topic	Vunlerability	Vunlerability
Strategic Question	Which are the economic sectors, industries or other components of the economy vulnerable to climate change ?	Do weather and climate extremes or changes affect individual and group behaviour?
Tasks	Identify and assess the critical climate factors for each component of the Canadian economy. Assess their impacts on critical resources and functions (e.g. productivity, competitiveness, employment, long term viability).	Examine scientific literature, accident, health care, insurance, police, resort, school, and other reports and statistics. Identify and assess behavioural and other psychosocial effects of weather extremes and weather changes in vulnerable groups or areas.
Products	Databases, indicators and assessments of vulnerability.	Assessments of behavioural and related social and economic effects of weather on alertness and mental performance, accidents, use of pharmaceuticals and health services, recreation, social conflicts and transgressions. Recommendations for reducing or avoiding adverse effects and dangers.
Uses / Linkages	Adaptation strategies for economic sectors and components.	Accident prevention, planning of health care and other public service s. Education and awareness initiatives.
Order On Critical Path	Medium	Medium

Research Sub- Topic	Adaptation	Adaptation	Adaptation
Strategic Question	How effective are strategies to minimize the socioeconomic and health impacts of climate change ?	How can the public health infrastructure be prepared for the impacts of climate change?	How can the public health surveillance and warning systems be improved to cope with climate change?
Tasks	Develop and use indicators and models for assessing the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Do case studies.	Identify and prioritize vulnerabilities and required corrective measures.	Assess the adequacy of health indicators and health surveillance tools, recommend improvements.
Products	Effectiveness indicators for mitigation and adaptation strategies. Recommendations for improvements.	Vulnerability assessments and recommendations for improvements.	Assessment reports and recommendations for improvements, including vulnerable areas, data gaps by priority, new methods or equipment for better data collection and integration, and human and funding resource needs.
Uses / Linkages	Guidelines for developing and selecting appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies.	Better emergency preparedness of health services.	Improved adaption strategies and public health surveillance and warning systems.
Order On Critical Path		High	High